Stage Tilts to State Space: GP Skill the Bayesian Way

From yf,mN(μm,σ2)y_{f,m}\sim\mathcal{N}(\mu_m,\sigma^2) to stage offsets, Student-tt tails, μs\mu_s-anchored managers, γvintage\gamma_{\text{vintage}} cycles, and a μm,t\mu_{m,t} random walk—all inside one workflow.

11/16/2025

private equity
bayesian
workflow
pymc
hierarchical
posterior predictive
simulation

Intelligence Increase as Control Under Uncertainty

Why IntelligenceargmaxπE[tγt1R(st,at)]\operatorname{Intelligence} \approx \arg\max_\pi \mathbb{E}[\sum_t \gamma^{t-1} R(s_t, a_t)] under tool-augmented constraints.

11/12/2025

ai
agents
control
philosophy
smile
pompd
mcp
plotly
systems

Life Extension as Hazard Shaping Under Constraints

Steering λ(t)\lambda(t) so S(t)=exp ⁣(0tλ(u)du)S(t) = \exp\!\left(-\int_0^t \lambda(u)\,du\right) bends toward longer, healthier time.

11/12/2025

longevity
biostatistics
survival-analysis
control
smile

Borrowing Predictive Strength, In Practice

Walking the data flow from p(θy)p(\theta \mid y) draws to JSON moments m=E[g(θ)y]m=\mathbb{E}[g(\theta)\mid y].

11/9/2025

private equity
bayesian
pymc
hierarchical
sqlmodel
synthetic data
stress testing

Posterior Multiples for Pricing, Leverage, and Covenants

Letting M~i=wiMi+(1wi)μ\tilde{M}_i = w_i M_i + (1-w_i)\mu shrink comps before the covenant debate.

11/3/2025

private equity
valuation
bayesian
hierarchical
comps
exits
mixtures

Deal Sourcing as a Contextual Bandit

Budgeted Thompson Sampling with at=argmaxxθtxa_t = \arg\max_x \theta_t^\top x under tctB\sum_t c_t \le B.

11/2/2025

private equity
origination
bayesian
bandits
thompson-sampling
strategy
decision-theory

We Buy Distributions, Not Deals

Choosing exits by sampling p(rD)p(r \mid \mathcal{D}) so E[r]λVaRα\mathbb{E}[r]-\lambda \cdot \mathrm{VaR}_\alpha drives the sell/hold call.

10/26/2025

private equity
bayesian
decision-theory
risk
valuation

Borrowing Predictive Strength

Sharing strength because θdealN(θfund,τd2)\theta_{deal} \sim \mathcal{N}(\theta_{fund}, \tau_d^2) and θfundN(θmgr,τf2)\theta_{fund} \sim \mathcal{N}(\theta_{mgr}, \tau_f^2).

10/12/2025

private equity
bayesian
hierarchical
prediction
pooling

Bayesian NAV Updating w/ Kalman Filters

Updating quarterly marks via x^tt=x^tt1+Kt(ztHx^tt1)\hat{x}_{t\mid t} = \hat{x}_{t\mid t-1} + K_t(z_t - H\hat{x}_{t\mid t-1}).

10/5/2025

private equity
bayesian
nowcasting
valuation
kalman
hierarchical

Secondaries as Temporal Arbitrage

Spotting trades whenever D=1VdVdrD = -\tfrac{1}{V}\tfrac{dV}{dr} and pacing curves fall out of sync.

10/1/2025

private equity
secondaries
liquidity
duration
stochastic-discount-factor
portfolio-math

Market Beta for Private Market Valuation

Showing how β=Cov(rPE,rpub)Var(rpub)\beta = \tfrac{\mathrm{Cov}(r_{PE}, r_{pub})}{\mathrm{Var}(r_{pub})} mutates once marks are smoothed kk quarters.

9/28/2025

Private Equity
Risk
Beta
Interactive
Regression
Bottom-up

Explore vs Exploit in the Age of AI

Balancing exploration vs exploitation by tuning ϵ\epsilon so E[Rπϵ]\mathbb{E}[R \mid \pi_\epsilon] stays above ship-it.

9/24/2025

Study
Practice
Engineering
AI
Productivity
Strategy

Risk-Free Rates in PE

Building WACC inputs with rf=yUSTπer_f = y_{UST} - \pi_e anchoring ke=rf+βERPk_e = r_f + \beta \cdot \mathrm{ERP}.

9/21/2025

Private Equity
Risk-Free Rate
WACC
DCF Surface
Hamada
LBO Monte Carlo
Interactive
Simulation

Hawkes Processes for Portfolio Rollups

Modeling capital-call waves with λ(t)=μ+ti<tαeβ(tti)\lambda(t) = \mu + \sum_{t_i<t} \alpha e^{-\beta(t-t_i)} triggers.

9/14/2025

Private Equity
Point Processes
Hawkes
Interactive
Simulation

The Denominator Effect Playbook

Watching policy bands break when wt=NAVtNAVt+jLj,tw_t = \tfrac{NAV_t}{NAV_t + \sum_j L_{j,t}} spikes and forces secondaries.

9/7/2025

private equity
secondaries
strategy
denominator-effect
liquidity
portfolio-math

Geometry of Fund Multiples vs Rates

When IRR\mathrm{IRR} solves tCFt(1+r)t=0\sum_t CF_t (1+r)^{-t}=0 but TVPI=NAV+DistPaid In\mathrm{TVPI}=\tfrac{NAV+\mathrm{Dist}}{\mathrm{Paid\ In}} tells another story.

8/31/2025

Private Equity
IRR
TVPI
Interactive
Simulation
Copulas

PME, Direct Alpha, & Replication

Contrasting PME=CFt(1+rb)TtCallst(1+rb)Tt\mathrm{PME} = \tfrac{\sum \mathrm{CF}_t (1+r_b)^{T-t}}{\sum \mathrm{Calls}_t (1+r_b)^{T-t}} with α=ln(PME)T\alpha = \tfrac{\ln(\mathrm{PME})}{T}.

8/24/2025

Private Equity
Benchmarking
Interactive
Kaplan-Schoar
Direct Alpha
Replication & PME+

Retrospective 2024

2024 wrap where plan2025\nabla \text{plan}_{2025} is set by residual et=goaltshipte_t = \text{goal}_t - \text{ship}_t.

12/27/2024

goals

Advent of Code 2020 21-25

Resolving allergens with I=kIkI = \bigcap_k \mathcal{I}_k and CRT shuttles using tai(modni)t \equiv a_i \pmod{n_i}.

11/8/2024

advent of code
racket
algorithms

Advent of Code 2020 16-20

Parsing tickets via xjRjx \in \bigcap_j \mathcal{R}_j and tiling monsters so f(x)=Rx+tf(x)=R x + t lines up.

10/10/2024

advent of code
racket
algorithms

Advent of Code 2020 11-15

Sim seating automata until St+1St=0\lvert S_{t+1}-S_t\rvert=0 then docking with v=ibi2iv = \sum_i b_i 2^i bitmasks.

9/15/2024

advent of code
racket
algorithms

Advent of Code 2020 6-10

Tracking group answers via iSi\lvert \cup_i S_i \rvert and grid paths with ft+1=ft+Δf_{t+1}=f_t+\Delta.

9/13/2024

advent of code
racket
algorithms

Advent of Code 2020 1-5

Racket runs for a+b=2020a+b=2020, seat IDs 8r+c8r+c, and expense reports as (n2)\binom{n}{2} hunts.

9/11/2024

advent of code
racket
algorithms

Canto I: Momentum Basics

Comparing baselines to rt(k)=i=1kwiRtir_t^{(k)} = \sum_{i=1}^{k} w_i R_{t-i} trend signals.

9/10/2024

algorithmic trading
canto
momentum
backtesting

Gomper

Layering color fields where c(x,y)=iwiηi(x,y)c(x,y)=\sum_i w_i \eta_i(x,y) from Poisson-disk seeds.

8/13/2024

Generative Art
Poisson Disk Sampling
Simplex Noise

Of a Momentous Fixed Point

A plotting toy where mt+1=βmt+(1β)rtm_{t+1} = \beta m_t + (1-\beta) r_t keeps pulsing.

8/3/2024

Generative Art
Stonks
Momentum
Buy!
Sell!

Bebop Rift

Ribbon improvisations where c(t)=ksin(2πfkt+ϕk)c(t)=\sum_k \sin(2\pi f_k t + \phi_k) drives the palette.

8/1/2024

generative art
harmonics
wave

Magic Pig Detective

A noisy sleuth built from xt+1=Axt+εtx_{t+1} = A x_t + \varepsilon_t pink-noise textures.

8/1/2024

generative art
Melvins

An Imaginary Country

Drifting landscapes with h(x,y)=kαkPerlin(2kx,2ky)h(x,y) = \sum_k \alpha_k \operatorname{Perlin}(2^k x, 2^k y) fog.

8/1/2024

generative art
noise
Tim Hecker

Rothko Generator

Stacking shader layers c(z)=01w(t)exp(zμt2/σt2)dtc(z)=\int_0^1 w(t)\exp(-\|z-\mu_t\|^2/\sigma_t^2)\,dt.

7/25/2024

generative art
Mark Rothko
Sympathetic Magic
interactive

The 3-Fiber Kullback-Liebler Poisson Experiment

Weaving Poisson arrivals λxyz\lambda_{xyz} with DKL(PQ)D_{KL}(P\|Q) texture maps.

7/25/2024

generative art
3D
Kullback-Leiber Divergence
Poisson

Playing With Chaos

Tuning x˙=σ(yx)\dot{x} = \sigma(y-x)-style systems until attractors fill R3\mathbb{R}^3.

7/18/2024

generative art
chaos theory

Blog V2

Shipping MDX so post(x)=Markdown(x)+React(x)dx\text{post}(x) = \text{Markdown}(x) + \int \text{React}(x)\,dx.

6/29/2024

new software
overview

Black-Scholes-Merton Model

Walking from dSt=μStdt+σStdWtdS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t to C0=S0N(d1)KerTN(d2)C_0 = S_0 N(d_1) - K e^{-rT} N(d_2).

6/28/2024

Options
Interactive

Retrospective 2023

Reviewing 2023 via ΔOKR=i(actualitargeti)\Delta \mathrm{OKR} = \sum_i (\text{actual}_i - \text{target}_i) and shrinking σfocus2\sigma^2_{\text{focus}}.

12/27/2023

goals
gpt4
summit
racket
powerlifting

From PDE to Price: Solving Black-Scholes and Delta Hedging

Solve LV=0\mathcal{L}V=0, go risk-neutral, then hedge with Δ=V/S\Delta = \partial V/\partial S so dΠt=rΠtdtd\Pi_t = r\Pi_t dt.

5/15/2023

Black-Scholes-Merton
risk-neutral measure
delta hedging
Greeks
European option

Jammin' with GPT4

Pair sessions where dflowdt\tfrac{d\,\text{flow}}{dt} tracks E[tokensprompt]\mathbb{E}[\text{tokens} \mid \text{prompt}].

4/26/2023

GPT

Outpainting with Dall-e 2

Extending canvases by sampling xt+1N(μt,Σt)x_{t+1} \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_t,\Sigma_t) from p(pixelsprompt)p(\text{pixels}\mid\text{prompt}).

4/26/2023

Outpainting
Dall-e 2
GPT-4
Art
Photography
Plagiarism
Painting

The Black-Scholes Partial Differential Equation

Deriving tV+12σ2S2SSV+rSSVrV=0\partial_t V + \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 S^2 \partial_{SS} V + rS \partial_S V - rV = 0 and why it prices hedges.

1/24/2023

Black-Schole-Merton
partial differential equation
European derivative

Retrospective 2022

A scorecard where P2022=iwiΔhabitiP_{2022} = \sum_i w_i \cdot \Delta \text{habit}_i.

12/27/2022

goals
kanban
books
synth

Itô's Lemma

Applying df=tfdt+xfdXt+12xxfσ2dtdf = \partial_t f\,dt + \partial_x f\,dX_t + \tfrac{1}{2}\partial_{xx} f\,\sigma^2 dt to finish the derivation.

11/19/2022

Itô's Lemma
Itô Calculus
Geometric Brownian Motion
Taylor expansion
log-normal

Stochastic Differential Equations & Geometric Brownian Motion

Tracking how ΔXtN(0,Δt)\Delta X_t \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Delta t) becomes dSt=μStdt+σStdWtdS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t.

10/21/2022

stochastic differential equations
geometric brownian motion
jump diffusion
square root diffusion

Brownian Motion as a Symmetric Random Walk Limit

Watching Sn/nWtS_n/\sqrt{n} \Rightarrow W_t as Δt0\Delta t \to 0.

9/27/2022

random walk
brownian motion
python
mathematical finance
options pricing
CLT
Interactive

Kaprekar's Routine

Iterating γt+1=sort(γt)sort(γt)\gamma_{t+1} = \operatorname{sort}_\downarrow(\gamma_t) - \operatorname{sort}_\uparrow(\gamma_t) until 6174.

9/11/2022

algorithm
number theory
uniqueness

Montana

Field notes where exposure EAf2E \propto \tfrac{A}{f^2} keeps geysers and big skies in range.

7/12/2022

montana
yellowstone
geysers
hot springs

Cyborg Lisps

When host stacks embed λ\lambda-calculus so codedata\text{code} \equiv \text{data} across the cyborg membrane.

6/26/2022

lisp
embedded programming languages
macros
metacircular evaluator

A Spoonful of Metaprogramming

Binding tidy-eval spells to λ\lambda-expressions so f(x;θ)f(x;\theta) pipelines synthesize themselves.

6/22/2022

R
metaprogramming
tidy eval

Searching For Chaos

Scanning coefficient vectors a\mathbf{a} until Lyapunov λmax(a)>0\lambda_{\max}(\mathbf{a}) > 0 lights up.

6/20/2022

python
generative art
chaos theory
differential equations
convex hull
clustering

O/blog/itory First Post

Setting t=0t=0 with blogt+1=blogt+ε\mathbf{blog}_{t+1} = \mathbf{blog}_t + \varepsilon experiments.

6/1/2022

introduction

About

Meeting the tinkerer with curiosity0\nabla \text{curiosity} \neq 0 behind every experiment.

1/2/1000

a boot