Stage Tilts to State Space: GP Skill the Bayesian Way
From to stage offsets, Student- tails, -anchored managers, cycles, and a random walk—all inside one workflow.
11/16/2025
Intelligence Increase as Control Under Uncertainty
Why under tool-augmented constraints.
11/12/2025
Life Extension as Hazard Shaping Under Constraints
Steering so bends toward longer, healthier time.
11/12/2025
Borrowing Predictive Strength, In Practice
Walking the data flow from draws to JSON moments .
11/9/2025
Posterior Multiples for Pricing, Leverage, and Covenants
Letting shrink comps before the covenant debate.
11/3/2025
Deal Sourcing as a Contextual Bandit
Budgeted Thompson Sampling with under .
11/2/2025
We Buy Distributions, Not Deals
Choosing exits by sampling so drives the sell/hold call.
10/26/2025
Borrowing Predictive Strength
Sharing strength because and .
10/12/2025
Bayesian NAV Updating w/ Kalman Filters
Updating quarterly marks via .
10/5/2025
Secondaries as Temporal Arbitrage
Spotting trades whenever and pacing curves fall out of sync.
10/1/2025
Market Beta for Private Market Valuation
Showing how mutates once marks are smoothed quarters.
9/28/2025
Explore vs Exploit in the Age of AI
Balancing exploration vs exploitation by tuning so stays above ship-it.
9/24/2025
Risk-Free Rates in PE
Building WACC inputs with anchoring .
9/21/2025
Hawkes Processes for Portfolio Rollups
Modeling capital-call waves with triggers.
9/14/2025
The Denominator Effect Playbook
Watching policy bands break when spikes and forces secondaries.
9/7/2025
Geometry of Fund Multiples vs Rates
When solves but tells another story.
8/31/2025
PME, Direct Alpha, & Replication
Contrasting with .
8/24/2025
Retrospective 2024
2024 wrap where is set by residual .
12/27/2024
Advent of Code 2020 21-25
Resolving allergens with and CRT shuttles using .
11/8/2024
Advent of Code 2020 16-20
Parsing tickets via and tiling monsters so lines up.
10/10/2024
Advent of Code 2020 11-15
Sim seating automata until then docking with bitmasks.
9/15/2024
Advent of Code 2020 6-10
Tracking group answers via and grid paths with .
9/13/2024
Advent of Code 2020 1-5
Racket runs for , seat IDs , and expense reports as hunts.
9/11/2024
Canto I: Momentum Basics
Comparing baselines to trend signals.
9/10/2024
Gomper
Layering color fields where from Poisson-disk seeds.
8/13/2024
Of a Momentous Fixed Point
A plotting toy where keeps pulsing.
8/3/2024
Bebop Rift
Ribbon improvisations where drives the palette.
8/1/2024
Magic Pig Detective
A noisy sleuth built from pink-noise textures.
8/1/2024
An Imaginary Country
Drifting landscapes with fog.
8/1/2024
Rothko Generator
Stacking shader layers .
7/25/2024
The 3-Fiber Kullback-Liebler Poisson Experiment
Weaving Poisson arrivals with texture maps.
7/25/2024
Playing With Chaos
Tuning -style systems until attractors fill .
7/18/2024
Blog V2
Shipping MDX so .
6/29/2024
Black-Scholes-Merton Model
Walking from to .
6/28/2024
Retrospective 2023
Reviewing 2023 via and shrinking .
12/27/2023
From PDE to Price: Solving Black-Scholes and Delta Hedging
Solve , go risk-neutral, then hedge with so .
5/15/2023
Jammin' with GPT4
Pair sessions where tracks .
4/26/2023
Outpainting with Dall-e 2
Extending canvases by sampling from .
4/26/2023
The Black-Scholes Partial Differential Equation
Deriving and why it prices hedges.
1/24/2023
Retrospective 2022
A scorecard where .
12/27/2022
Itô's Lemma
Applying to finish the derivation.
11/19/2022
Stochastic Differential Equations & Geometric Brownian Motion
Tracking how becomes .
10/21/2022
Brownian Motion as a Symmetric Random Walk Limit
Watching as .
9/27/2022
Kaprekar's Routine
Iterating until 6174.
9/11/2022
Montana
Field notes where exposure keeps geysers and big skies in range.
7/12/2022
Cyborg Lisps
When host stacks embed -calculus so across the cyborg membrane.
6/26/2022
A Spoonful of Metaprogramming
Binding tidy-eval spells to -expressions so pipelines synthesize themselves.
6/22/2022
Searching For Chaos
Scanning coefficient vectors until Lyapunov lights up.
6/20/2022
O/blog/itory First Post
Setting with experiments.
6/1/2022
About
Meeting the tinkerer with behind every experiment.
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